DeAndre Ayton
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Profile:
Strengths:
Physical and Athletic Tools
The first thing to know about Deandre Ayton is how unique he is physically. Ayton didn’t participate at the NBA Draft Combine but he was last measured at standing 7’0.5” tall, weighing 261 pounds, and having an impressive wingspan of 7’5”. This is actually similar to Brook Lopez’ measurements when he was entering the league (height: 7’0.5, weight: 258 pounds, wingspan: 7’5”). Another guy who measured closely to this when entering the league was Greg Oden (height: 7’0”, weight: 257 pounds, wingspan: 7’4.25”). He also has some similarities with Joel Embiid (height: 7’0”, wingspan: 7’5”) but weighs 15-20 pounds heavier than Embiid does. Along with his elite physical tools, Ayton is one of the better athletes in the class. He’s a lob threat in transition and in the half-court. He also moves up and down the court better than most would expect for a guy his size. Unfortunately, he didn’t participate in the combine so they aren’t exact measurements of his vertical, but anyone who has watched some tape of his can quickly tell how athletic he is.
Rebounding
Ayton is an elite rebounder because of his physical attributes and athleticism matched with his positioning. While he already has so many NBA ready skills, this is probably where he is the most NBA ready. He should be able to come into the league and dominate the glass right away. There are times when he doesn’t box out for rebounds and relies on his height and athleticism, but he has good positioning and fundamentals most of the time. Ayton’s rebounding was definitely one of the best in all of college basketball as he led the Pac-12 in rebounding and was 6th in the nation with 11.6 rebounds per game. Out of all Division 1 players, Ayton tied for 7th in total rebound percentage with 21.4%. Some of the other NBA prospects that rank in the top 20 are Alize Johnson (21.0%), Mohamed Bamba (20.2%), Brandon McCoy (19.5%), and Robert Williams (18.9%).
Offensive Skill-Set
The crazy thing about Ayton is that his offensive skill-set consists of many different strengths. Some of his strongest skills are in the post, where he shows great footwork, shooting, great hands, being a lob threat, passing, and more. Ayton was one of the best players in the post this past season: scoring 1.052 PPP on post-ups (90th percentile) on 117 post-up field goal attempts. This is a pretty big sample size as it accounts for 28.9% of his total possessions. While his size and strength definitely give him an advantage down low, his footwork in the post is unbelievable. He uses a drop-step quite a bit to get an advantage and finish around the rim. He also likes to use a spin moves which look very fluid for a guy his size. Along with great footwork, Ayton is really good at getting the ball in a position where he can score. He doesn’t ask for the ball at the high post very much, even though he’s shown that he can make some moves from there. He normally gets the ball in the mid to low post and starts going to work from there. One last thing about Ayton’s game in the post is that he makes it really easy for his teammates to feed him the ball. He uses his body very well to hold off his defenders and he is really coordinated with his hands. While the NBA doesn’t use bigs like they were used in the past, Ayton’s dominance in the post will help out whichever team he goes to.
Shooting
Another important part of Ayton’s offensive skill-set is his shooting. His mid-range game is pretty amazing and he’s able to knock down some 3’s as well. He shot 34% from 3 which isn’t amazing, but it’s at least respectable. His shot is a bit flat so it is important to see how his 3 point shooter will translate to the NBA because the range is a little bit longer. But even without being a great 3 point shooter, his mid-range game is one of the bests in college basketball. He’s able to face-up and shoot over his defender with his length time and time again. He’s not as good as Lamarcus Aldridge, but this is just an example of someone who has made a living from shooting mid-range shots. The fact that Ayton should be respectable from 3 and a knock-down mid-range shooter will definitely help space the floor when his guards are trying to attack the rim. Ayton scored 1.125 PPP on spot-ups possessions, which put him in the 86th percentile.
Passing upside
While there are some weaknesses to Ayton’s passing and decision making, he showed plenty of signs throughout the season that he can make the right decision and find the open man. His passing did not get enough credit this year and it is definitely an underrated skill of his. Ayton is good enough in the post to force a double every now and then, and he showed that he was able to recognize double-team’s coming and kick it back out to the wing or to the open man on the perimeter to get a wide open 3. Normally, this pass would be from the block to the opposite wing and he found Parker Jackson-Cartwright for wide open 3’s throughout the year. Surround Ayton with above-average spot-up shooters and the defense will have a tough decision to make. Do they want to double him in the post and let him pass it out to a good spot-up shooter? Or do they trust their big to defend Ayton in the post?
Rim protection upside
While there’s a lot of talk about how Ayton isn’t going to be an elite rim protector in the league, people have unfairly saying that it’s a big weakness of his. Yes, there are some legit concerns, such as willingness and defensive IQ, but he’s shown that he’s able to protect the rim at times, and he definitely has potential as a rim protector. He only allowed 0.559 PPP on shots when opponents were driving to the basket, which ranked him in the 95th percentile. The main point here is that he is capable of protecting the rim because of his athleticism and size.
Signs of Perimeter D
While Ayton is never going to be an elite perimeter defender, he was pretty good in college given his size. There were several times throughout the season where he would switch onto the guard and stay with them or contest a shot with his length. He even blocked a few shots on the perimeter. When defending in isolation, he gave up 0.658 PPP, which would rank in the 71st percentile. As mentioned earlier, this is pretty good give the size he is. He most likely won’t be able to switch onto elite guards, but it’s a good sign that he has shown that he is capable of staying with some smaller and quicker guys every now and then.
Age
Like most of the top prospects in recent years, Ayton was a one-and-done in college so he’s still really young. Turning 20 in December, Ayton has plenty of time to develop his already impressive game. While most of his skills should be able to translate, hopefully he can improve his defensive IQ as he grows older.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Basketball IQ
While Ayton’s strengths definitely outweigh his weaknesses, improving his basketball IQ is something that will definitely help him reach his ceiling. He seemed to settle for a lot of mid-range shots, even in games where it wasn’t falling. And while he’s one of the better mid-range shooters in this class, he’s also a force in the post and can take advantage of smaller guys trying to guard him. If he can learn to be a deadly mid-range shooter, but not settle for it, he’s just that more dangerous on the offensive end of the floor. One reason why he might have taken too many mid-range shots is because he was sharing the floor with another 7-footer (Dusan Ristic), who wasn’t nearly as mobile as Ayton, so that’s also something to take into account. Moving to the defensive side of the ball, Ayton sometimes looks lost on defense and can struggle to read even simple offensive actions. While it isn’t a guarantee, hopefully Ayton can improve his IQ with more experience and time on the court.
Passing on the move
While Ayton’s passing upside was talked about earlier, it’s important to remember that his passing isn’t perfect, and there are some things to worry about. One of the biggest concerns with Ayton’s passing is that he isn’t great at making passes on the move. There are times when he gets the ball rolling to the rim after setting a screen and he makes a bad decision or pass after the defense rotates to stop his roll. While Ayton is incredible on offense, this is definitely something that he needs to work on because it is very important in today’s NBA.
Willingness to protect the rim
Ayton is not as bad on defense as everyone makes him out to be, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a weakness or something to be concerned about. As mentioned earlier, his defensive IQ isn’t the best and he sometimes gives up some easy points. While he’s shown some signs of rim protecting, his positioning isn’t always great. It seems like he’s definitely capable of protecting the rim, especially given his physical and athletic tools, but he might not be willing to at times, which might be a problem. Once again, it might have hurt him that he played next to Ristic at Arizona, but there were times where he wasn’t protecting the rim when he was the only big man on the floor. Overall, if Ayton can mature into someone who wants to protect the rim, he can be a positive on the defensive end.
NBA Fit:
Position: 5
Role: Two-way game changer
Ideal Team fit: Spaced floor with a stretch 4. The more spot-up shooters, the better.
Draft Range:
Deandre Ayton was one of the most dominant players in all of college basketball this past season and most people have labeled him as the future #1 pick. While it isn’t a guarantee, it certainly seems like he will be. His rebounding and offense alone will allow him to have a very successful NBA career and provides him with a very high floor. Improving his 3 point shot and his defense is what can make him one of the most dominant bigs in the league. Heading into the draft, it is safe to assume that either he or Luka Doncic will be heading to Phoenix but most people are leaning towards Ayton being the guy.
Projected Draft Range: Top 2
- 19 year old, 7’0.5” big from the University of Arizona
- 5 star recruit and #3 on the ESPN 100
- From Nassau, Bahamas
Strengths:
Physical and Athletic Tools
The first thing to know about Deandre Ayton is how unique he is physically. Ayton didn’t participate at the NBA Draft Combine but he was last measured at standing 7’0.5” tall, weighing 261 pounds, and having an impressive wingspan of 7’5”. This is actually similar to Brook Lopez’ measurements when he was entering the league (height: 7’0.5, weight: 258 pounds, wingspan: 7’5”). Another guy who measured closely to this when entering the league was Greg Oden (height: 7’0”, weight: 257 pounds, wingspan: 7’4.25”). He also has some similarities with Joel Embiid (height: 7’0”, wingspan: 7’5”) but weighs 15-20 pounds heavier than Embiid does. Along with his elite physical tools, Ayton is one of the better athletes in the class. He’s a lob threat in transition and in the half-court. He also moves up and down the court better than most would expect for a guy his size. Unfortunately, he didn’t participate in the combine so they aren’t exact measurements of his vertical, but anyone who has watched some tape of his can quickly tell how athletic he is.
Rebounding
Ayton is an elite rebounder because of his physical attributes and athleticism matched with his positioning. While he already has so many NBA ready skills, this is probably where he is the most NBA ready. He should be able to come into the league and dominate the glass right away. There are times when he doesn’t box out for rebounds and relies on his height and athleticism, but he has good positioning and fundamentals most of the time. Ayton’s rebounding was definitely one of the best in all of college basketball as he led the Pac-12 in rebounding and was 6th in the nation with 11.6 rebounds per game. Out of all Division 1 players, Ayton tied for 7th in total rebound percentage with 21.4%. Some of the other NBA prospects that rank in the top 20 are Alize Johnson (21.0%), Mohamed Bamba (20.2%), Brandon McCoy (19.5%), and Robert Williams (18.9%).
Offensive Skill-Set
The crazy thing about Ayton is that his offensive skill-set consists of many different strengths. Some of his strongest skills are in the post, where he shows great footwork, shooting, great hands, being a lob threat, passing, and more. Ayton was one of the best players in the post this past season: scoring 1.052 PPP on post-ups (90th percentile) on 117 post-up field goal attempts. This is a pretty big sample size as it accounts for 28.9% of his total possessions. While his size and strength definitely give him an advantage down low, his footwork in the post is unbelievable. He uses a drop-step quite a bit to get an advantage and finish around the rim. He also likes to use a spin moves which look very fluid for a guy his size. Along with great footwork, Ayton is really good at getting the ball in a position where he can score. He doesn’t ask for the ball at the high post very much, even though he’s shown that he can make some moves from there. He normally gets the ball in the mid to low post and starts going to work from there. One last thing about Ayton’s game in the post is that he makes it really easy for his teammates to feed him the ball. He uses his body very well to hold off his defenders and he is really coordinated with his hands. While the NBA doesn’t use bigs like they were used in the past, Ayton’s dominance in the post will help out whichever team he goes to.
Shooting
Another important part of Ayton’s offensive skill-set is his shooting. His mid-range game is pretty amazing and he’s able to knock down some 3’s as well. He shot 34% from 3 which isn’t amazing, but it’s at least respectable. His shot is a bit flat so it is important to see how his 3 point shooter will translate to the NBA because the range is a little bit longer. But even without being a great 3 point shooter, his mid-range game is one of the bests in college basketball. He’s able to face-up and shoot over his defender with his length time and time again. He’s not as good as Lamarcus Aldridge, but this is just an example of someone who has made a living from shooting mid-range shots. The fact that Ayton should be respectable from 3 and a knock-down mid-range shooter will definitely help space the floor when his guards are trying to attack the rim. Ayton scored 1.125 PPP on spot-ups possessions, which put him in the 86th percentile.
Passing upside
While there are some weaknesses to Ayton’s passing and decision making, he showed plenty of signs throughout the season that he can make the right decision and find the open man. His passing did not get enough credit this year and it is definitely an underrated skill of his. Ayton is good enough in the post to force a double every now and then, and he showed that he was able to recognize double-team’s coming and kick it back out to the wing or to the open man on the perimeter to get a wide open 3. Normally, this pass would be from the block to the opposite wing and he found Parker Jackson-Cartwright for wide open 3’s throughout the year. Surround Ayton with above-average spot-up shooters and the defense will have a tough decision to make. Do they want to double him in the post and let him pass it out to a good spot-up shooter? Or do they trust their big to defend Ayton in the post?
Rim protection upside
While there’s a lot of talk about how Ayton isn’t going to be an elite rim protector in the league, people have unfairly saying that it’s a big weakness of his. Yes, there are some legit concerns, such as willingness and defensive IQ, but he’s shown that he’s able to protect the rim at times, and he definitely has potential as a rim protector. He only allowed 0.559 PPP on shots when opponents were driving to the basket, which ranked him in the 95th percentile. The main point here is that he is capable of protecting the rim because of his athleticism and size.
Signs of Perimeter D
While Ayton is never going to be an elite perimeter defender, he was pretty good in college given his size. There were several times throughout the season where he would switch onto the guard and stay with them or contest a shot with his length. He even blocked a few shots on the perimeter. When defending in isolation, he gave up 0.658 PPP, which would rank in the 71st percentile. As mentioned earlier, this is pretty good give the size he is. He most likely won’t be able to switch onto elite guards, but it’s a good sign that he has shown that he is capable of staying with some smaller and quicker guys every now and then.
Age
Like most of the top prospects in recent years, Ayton was a one-and-done in college so he’s still really young. Turning 20 in December, Ayton has plenty of time to develop his already impressive game. While most of his skills should be able to translate, hopefully he can improve his defensive IQ as he grows older.
Weaknesses & Concerns:
Basketball IQ
While Ayton’s strengths definitely outweigh his weaknesses, improving his basketball IQ is something that will definitely help him reach his ceiling. He seemed to settle for a lot of mid-range shots, even in games where it wasn’t falling. And while he’s one of the better mid-range shooters in this class, he’s also a force in the post and can take advantage of smaller guys trying to guard him. If he can learn to be a deadly mid-range shooter, but not settle for it, he’s just that more dangerous on the offensive end of the floor. One reason why he might have taken too many mid-range shots is because he was sharing the floor with another 7-footer (Dusan Ristic), who wasn’t nearly as mobile as Ayton, so that’s also something to take into account. Moving to the defensive side of the ball, Ayton sometimes looks lost on defense and can struggle to read even simple offensive actions. While it isn’t a guarantee, hopefully Ayton can improve his IQ with more experience and time on the court.
Passing on the move
While Ayton’s passing upside was talked about earlier, it’s important to remember that his passing isn’t perfect, and there are some things to worry about. One of the biggest concerns with Ayton’s passing is that he isn’t great at making passes on the move. There are times when he gets the ball rolling to the rim after setting a screen and he makes a bad decision or pass after the defense rotates to stop his roll. While Ayton is incredible on offense, this is definitely something that he needs to work on because it is very important in today’s NBA.
Willingness to protect the rim
Ayton is not as bad on defense as everyone makes him out to be, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a weakness or something to be concerned about. As mentioned earlier, his defensive IQ isn’t the best and he sometimes gives up some easy points. While he’s shown some signs of rim protecting, his positioning isn’t always great. It seems like he’s definitely capable of protecting the rim, especially given his physical and athletic tools, but he might not be willing to at times, which might be a problem. Once again, it might have hurt him that he played next to Ristic at Arizona, but there were times where he wasn’t protecting the rim when he was the only big man on the floor. Overall, if Ayton can mature into someone who wants to protect the rim, he can be a positive on the defensive end.
NBA Fit:
Position: 5
Role: Two-way game changer
Ideal Team fit: Spaced floor with a stretch 4. The more spot-up shooters, the better.
Draft Range:
Deandre Ayton was one of the most dominant players in all of college basketball this past season and most people have labeled him as the future #1 pick. While it isn’t a guarantee, it certainly seems like he will be. His rebounding and offense alone will allow him to have a very successful NBA career and provides him with a very high floor. Improving his 3 point shot and his defense is what can make him one of the most dominant bigs in the league. Heading into the draft, it is safe to assume that either he or Luka Doncic will be heading to Phoenix but most people are leaning towards Ayton being the guy.
Projected Draft Range: Top 2